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Ginmeister Limited Investment Review - Q3 2017

Written by Admin | Aug 16, 2017 4:00:00 AM

Summary

  • Pinkster continues to benefit from what is fast becoming a global phenomenon, with a resurgence of the cocktail culture and Millennials becoming a driving force behind the sector’s continued growth.
  • Sales are expected to double again in 2017/18 and we are confident that costs are now being managed better, evidenced in the first two trading months of the year.

 

Status Update

  • Since the last trading update in December 2016, year-on-year sales for the financial year ended March 2017 more than doubled to £1,107k in line with the forecast £1,114k.
  • The strong sales were supported by a number of significant account wins, notably Matthew Clark, and the momentum has carried through into the start of the current year, which aims to double revenues again.
  • Gross margins held above 50% which was in line with budget, although the EBITDA loss of £426k for the FY was larger than the expected £86k.
  • The original budget was set on the basis the Company would raise £600k in 2016. However, the final total was £1m and the additional funds raised have been invested in a number of areas, including the sales team, marketing (specifically, the number of events attended and POS support) and stock.
  • The additional investment in overhead expenses, along with higher fulfilment costs arising from a different sales mix, resulted in a higher loss than originally forecast. 
  • Pinkster Gin can only be produced during the raspberry growing season and stock levels have been boosted to enable the Company to meet increased demand for its products.
  • To reflect the trading performance for the full year ended March 2107, the Company has reforecast its budgets for 2018 and 2019, and now expects to reach monthly profit in mid-2018. Comparative forecasts are shown below.
  • Management have taken a conscious decision to focus on better cost control and the new financial year has started solidly. YTD sales are just shy of budget, but EBITDA is 14% ahead, reflecting that tighter management of costs. Gross margin has exceeded budget at 47% (budget 44%), with the reduction from the original forecasts reflecting the new split of sales and increased direct costs.
  • Although the UK market remains the main focus in 2017/18, good progress is being made in Australia and New Zealand. Sales also start in the US in the autumn.
  • In other news, Gin Jam and Boozy Berries sales are strong, commanding margins nearer 65%, and a branding refresh is underway.

 

Trading Performance

March Year End (£’000s) Actual 2016 Actual 2017 Original Budget 2018 Revised Budget 2018 Original Budget 2019 Revised Budget 2019
Sales £500k £1,107k £2,344k £2,229k £3,609k £3,519k
Cost of Sales (£224k) (£549k) (£1,142k) (£1,200k) (£1,752k) (£1,925k)
Gross Profit £276k £558k £1,202k £1,029k £1,857k £1,594k
Overheads (£452k) (£984k) (£872k) (£1,142k) (£1,473k) (£1,315k)
EBITDA (£176k) (£426k) £330k (£113k) £384k £279k
GP Margin 55% 50% 51% 46% 51% 45%

 

Cash Update

  • The higher costs associated with the decision to invest in events and accelerate production last year led to a squeeze on cash in May 2017, which was identified early, and the Company has secured a loan of £210k from the Board of Directors. The coupon of base +6% is rolled up and the loan is to be repaid on 31st Dec 2018.
  • Monthly profit is now expected in mid-2018 and we will continue to review the cash position.

 

Exit Planning

  • Since our last update in December, UK sales of Gin have broken through the £1bn mark for the first time, and there has been a flurry of M&A activity – Sipsmith was bought by Suntory and Bulldog by Gruppo Campari, for sums in excess of $50m each.
  • It is still anticipated that a trade sale to one of the drinks majors in 2019/20 is the most likely liquidity event.